Demand Forecast Modeling

Client
Fortune 500 Chemicals Manufacturer
Challenge
Weak demand forecast accuracy limits our ability to manage volume allocation to improve revenue growth and profitability.
Objectives
  • Build an algorithm to accurately forecast demand at 2, 3 and 12 month time horizons in order to shift from a qualitative to a quantitative analysis approach.
  • Identify external data sources that are predictive and accessible in the long term.
Approach
Weak demand forecast accuracy limits our ability to manage volume allocation to improve revenue growth and profitability.
  • Define objectives & accuracy targets
  • Identify, ingest and process data
  • Train and test algorithms
  • Modify business processes to leverage output
Result
  • 15 highly predictive variables were prioritized out of 1,294 variables assessed.
  • The algorithm reached 95% accuracy to 5% tolerance, surpassing the benchmark.

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